sábado, 23 de junho de 2012

Boeing's 747-400, a Faded Queen of the Skies

Back in the late ’80s, global airlines scrambled to place orders for Boeing’s (BA) 747-400 widebody, then the industry’s most coveted aircraft for its sheer size, high-tech cockpit, and creature comforts. Now, ten-year-old passenger 747-400s are worth a record-low $36 million, about 10 percent less than similarly aged planes last year, according to London-based aviation consultancy Ascend, as carriers seek more fuel-efficient models. There’s even little interest in converting the passenger jets into ?air freighters because of a slump in air cargo demand.

Some 48 of the humpbacked passenger 747-400s worldwide have also been placed in storage, according to Ascend. The onetime “Queen of the Skies” has been shunned in favor of Boeing’s smaller 777 widebody (which has two fewer engines sucking fuel) or Airbus’s mammoth A380 double-decker. “There’s not a lot of demand for the 747,” says Paul Sheridan, Ascend’s head of consultancy Asia. “They’re mostly being broken up for parts.”

The decline in prices contributed to Singapore Airlines (SIA2) having a surprise loss in the quarter ended March after the sale of the carrier’s last 747-400 brought in less than it expected. Japan Airlines has stopped using the planes, and operators including Cathay Pacific Airways, Korean Air Lines, and Malaysian Airline System (MAS) are following suit to help counter jet fuel prices that have jumped about 30 percent in two years. “When oil prices are high,” explains Cathay Pacific Chief Executive Officer John Slosar, “the last thing you want to do is hold on to your older planes.”

The Hong Kong-based airline said last month that it’s speeding up the retirement of its 21 passenger 747-400s. The carrier will shed nine through early 2014 as it adds more 777-300ERs for long-haul flights. Cathay is also retiring three 400-series freighters this year due to the arrival of new 747-8 cargo planes that are slightly larger and more fuel-efficient.

Although the original 747 was developed in the 1960s, the first 400 variant—which was more fuel-efficient and required one fewer cockpit crew member—was delivered to Northwest Airlines in 1989. The standard version can fly as far as 7,260 nautical miles (13,450 kilometers), carrying 416 passengers in three classes. Boeing delivered the last of the 400s series jets—all told, some 694 were sold—in 2009.

Newer aircraft use less fuel because of the development of more efficient engines and of lightweight materials. Boeing’s new 787, for instance, has a fuselage built from reinforced plastics, compared with the 747’s heavier aluminum shell. “We’re seeing a lot of airlines understanding that they need more fuel-efficient planes, and that bodes very well for us,” says Jim Albaugh, the head of Boeing’s commercial-plane business.

But such changes also can provide rivals an opening. Thai Airways International (THAI) is in the process of selling four 747-400s and it will begin phasing out the model in 2013. The carrier will begin receiving six of the A380s it has on order later this year. Flying 747-400s now “doesn’t make sense,” Amranand says. “It’s obvious that with this sort of fuel price that it will cost you.”

Simple math tells the story. Malaysian Airline System, which received its first A380 last month, will consume 1,181 barrels of fuel flying the 494-seat aircraft to London from Kuala Lumpur, according to Maybank Kim Eng Securities (MAY) analyst Wong Chew Hann. The carrier’s 359-seat 747-400s use about 999 barrels of fuel on the same route, he says. Fuel accounts for about a third of airlines’ costs, according to the International Air Transport Association, so the Airbus jumbo’s 16 percent edge in per-passenger efficiency is a big selling point.

The A380, which surpassed the 747-400 as the world’s largest commercial plane when it entered service in 2007, has become the flagship for carriers including Singapore Air and Qantas Airways (QUBSF). That’s left rivals still reliant on the 400 series at a disadvantage in terms of costs and prestige, says Maybank’s Wong. “It takes an A380 to beat an A380,” he wrote in a June 8 research note.

European carriers, operating in slower-growth markets, are replacing 747-400s less quickly. British Airways, the biggest 747-400 operator with its fleet of 55, according to Ascend, will retire the last of its fleet in about 10 years. “It’s a great aircraft. Customers love it,” says Willie Walsh, chief executive of BA’s parent, International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG). “We could replace some of them with 777-300ERs, which we are doing, but we are not looking to replace all of them.” Nonetheless, BA has also ordered 12 Airbus A380s, which will start arriving in about a year.

Although Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA) is already flying A380s and has ordered some 747-8s, it will still continue using its 400 series planes. “We will use it for quite a number of years,” says CEO Christoph Franz. One reason for the loyalty: Lufthansa owns them outright and their costs have long been accounted for.

The bottom line: Prices for used 747-400s, the world’s most popular widebody plane, have dropped 10 percent in the past year. Blame it on costly fuel.

Park is a reporter for Bloomberg News in Singapore. Rothman is a reporter for Bloomberg News in Paris.

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Executive on Greece: 'What Everyone Needs Now Is Certainty'

As chairman and chief executive officer of the Libra Group, George Logothetis has been a passionate defender of Greece throughout the crisis, as well as an active investor. Since taking charge of his family’s three-vessel fleet in 1995 at the age of 20, Logothetis, who lives in New York, has transformed the shipping company into a global conglomerate that spans shipping, aviation, real estate, hospitality, and energy. We spoke on June 19 about the impact of an anticipated coalition government.

What’s your reaction to Sunday’s election?

We feel much more comfortable and confident. What everyone needs right now is certainty. To have a government with almost 180 seats, albeit a coalition government, would be a very good thing. The last time there was a Greek government with this many seats was 35 years ago. The new government may have three different parties, but they all want to do the right thing for Greece.

What’s the range of your businesses there?

We’re an international group, but our roots are Greek. We had our shipping business out of Greece and, in 2006, we started expanding into real estate, renewable energy, and hospitality with Grace Hotels Group.

So you must have been hit by the crisis.

It’s been mixed. Our hotel bookings are actually on par with last year. That’s not bad when you consider that, after May 6, commerce stopped dead in its tracks. In the past few weeks, there’s been a huge reduction in tourism bookings because of the fear people had about Greece being out of the euro.

You can’t exit a crisis with constant uncertainty, and the biggest uncertainty has been the lack of a government for the last 40 days. It’s been incredibly damaging. There’s been this vicious negative cycle of news. Now, the wheels of commerce are starting to turn again. Even without the government being formed, you’re seeing some confidence come back.

Business confidence?

I mean business confidence and individual confidence. People stopped paying deposits on their school fees because they didn’t know whether they’d have to pay in euros or drachmas in the fall. That utter uncertainty almost paralyzed the country in the last 40 days. I’ve had friends who didn’t even want to put down deposits on their weddings because they didn’t know what currency they’d be using in September.

Now, there’s some clarity. In the past 24 hours, Alltours of Germany announced a 13 percent increase in bookings to Greece. One bank that had been losing 30 million euros a day saw an increase of 15 million euros in one day as Greeks started sending euros back home.  Increased certainty will allow for some more oxygen and breathing space for this country to turn itself around.

You’ve said Libra is “massively expanding” its presence in Greece. Are you motivated by loyalty or opportunity?

We’re driven by both duty and opportunity. The way we’re going to grow our Greek business is predominantly in the energy and tourism sectors.  We’ve built quite a substantial renewable energy infrastructure across Greece in the past three or four years, based in solar, wind, and biogas. It’s playing to the strengths of the country. We hope for our renewable energy subsidiary in Europe to be the largest producer of biogas in the next 12 months. We’ve got many projects that are either underway or at approval stage.

Greek firms lead in shipping, but it’s a global business. Have you seen a wider interest among your peers in investing back home?

Shipping is suffering its own crisis. The shipping markets are going through a generational collapse. It hasn’t been this bad since the mid-1980s. You’ve had a slowdown in growth and a huge supply of new ships ordered during the boom days that are now hitting the water today. But people underestimate the patriotism of Greeks.

Besides a stable government, what else is needed to build confidence?

The people of Greece need some hope and opportunity. This whirlpool of negativity has starved the populace of that. It’s very important that Greece gets out of headlines. It’s not helpful to be constantly battered by negativity and cynicism. It is a fallacy that all Greeks are lazy. There are some incredibly hungry and talented people who are desperate to advance themselves. Most of the Greeks I know are hard-working, industrious, and progressive people.

There’s been a lot of debate about whether the euro is the right currency for Greece, given the state of its economy.

The euro has its disadvantages and advantages but if you look at it through the broad lens of history, I think it’s a very good thing. The European Union was first set up to prevent wars. That part of it has been very successful. Marrying the Greeks and Germans and the Italians and the French was never going to be easy but at least they’re not fighting each other. And the infrastructure of Greece is now like a first-world country. The airports, the roads, the ports, the infrastructure are that of a modern European state. I can tell you, it wasn’t that way 20 years ago.

You recently gave a speech where you talked about applying philotimo in business. What’s that?

There’s no literal translation from Greek to English, but it binds Greeks together around the world. The most apt description would be the love of honor. It’s the duty to be decent, to take pride in oneself, to adhere to the idea that one’s word is one’s bond. Mention philotimo to a Greek and you’ll see emotion and pride. It’s the kind of old school traditional value that’s perhaps been diluted over the years. In a time of crisis, people tend to go to extremes, to the ultra left or the ultra right. But there’s also a return to more traditional values. It’s part of who we are as a company, and who we are as a people.


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Book Review: 'Overdressed,' by Elizabeth L. Cline

Overdressed: The Shockingly High Cost of Cheap Fashion
By Elizabeth L. Cline
Penguin Portfolio; 256pp; $25.95

In the 2006 film version of The Devil Wears Prada, Miranda Priestly, the Anna Wintour stand-in played by Meryl Streep, berates her frumpy assistant for imagining that high fashion doesn’t affect her. Priestly explains how the cerulean color of the assistant’s sweater trickled down over the years from haute couture runways to department stores to the bargain bin in which the poor girl doubtless found her garment.

This top-down conception of the fashion business couldn’t be more out of date or at odds with the frenzied world described in Overdressed, Elizabeth Cline’s three-year investigation and indictment of “fast fashion.” In the last decade or so, advances in technology have allowed mass-market labels such as Zara, H&M, Uniqlo, and Forever 21 to react to trends more quickly and anticipate demand more precisely. Quicker turnarounds mean less wasted inventory, more frequent releases, and more profit. These labels encourage style-conscious consumers to see clothes as disposable—meant to last only a wash or two, although they don’t advertise that—and to renew their wardrobe every few weeks. By offering on-trend items at dirt-cheap prices, Cline argues, these brands have hijacked fashion cycles, rattling an industry long accustomed to a seasonal pace.

The victims of this revolution, of course, are not limited to couturiers. For H&M to offer a $5.95 knit miniskirt in all its 2,300-plus stores around the world, it must rely on low-wage overseas labor, order in volumes that strain natural resources, and use massive amounts of harmful chemicals. One day last August, Reuters reported, 284 workers in a Cambodian factory that made clothes for the Swedish chain collapsed after “smelling something bad that came from the shirts.” (The exact cause of the problem wasn’t determined, which illustrates the difficulty of proper oversight in such sweatshops.)

Overdressed is the fashion world’s answer to consumer-activist bestsellers like Michael Pollan’s The Omnivore’s Dilemma. “Mass-produced clothing, like fast food, fills a hunger and need, yet is non-durable and wasteful,” Cline argues. Self-deprecating about her own lack of style—she has a thing for fleece-lined sweatshirts—Cline writes with the zeal of a reformed shopaholic. Like Pollan, she traveled extensively to follow her subject along the whole chain of production. She visited factories in China, gaining entry by masquerading as a clothier; learned sewing from Dominican seamstresses; and went shopping in Manhattan with “haulers,” fast-fashion addicts who brag about their purchases in YouTube videos. Haulers are Cline’s antiheroes.

Americans, she finds, buy roughly 20 billion garments a year—about 64 items per person—and no matter how much they give away, this excess leads to waste. The “clothing deficit myth” is what she calls the notion, comforting to fashionistas, that giving discards to charity offsets consumption. In fact, Cline reports, “charities long ago passed the point of being able to sell all of our wearable used clothes.”

Cline traces the fast-fashion ethos to Amancio Ortega Gaona, who founded Spanish powerhouse Zara in 1975. After a wholesaler canceled a big order, Ortega “got to work taking the risk out of selling clothes.” Since then, Zara has improved communication with factories to the point where it can now design a product and have it on shelves around the world within two weeks. Another advance was to have its 250 designers approximate existing runway looks, “as it did with French luxury label Celine’s spring 2011 collection.” Zara, like most of its cheap-fashion peers, has thus far steered clear of copyright infringement by making sure the clothes it sells are never exact replicas. Earlier this month, a French judge dismissed shoemaker Christian Louboutin’s 2008 suit against Zara, ruling that a red-soled stiletto sold by the latter for $70 could not be confused for the former’s $700 pump.

Fast fashion has made high style available to the masses. As Chanel designer Karl Lagerfeld once told the London Independent, with uncharacteristic populism, “Everybody today can be well dressed because cheaper clothes are well designed, too. OK, so maybe the material used might not be extraordinary, but it’s no longer a fact that lower-priced things are lousy.” Granted, he was promoting his own line at H&M at the time, but he had a point. As far back as 1997, Consumer Reports rated a $7 polo from Target higher than similar items from established brands like Ralph Lauren and Tommy Hilfiger. Cline argues that high-end labels have had to lower their standards to compete with fast fashion.

Toward the end of Overdressed, Cline introduces her ideal, a Brooklyn woman named Sarah Kate Beaumont, who since 2008 has made all of her own clothes—and beautifully. In her monastic dedication, she’s reminiscent of Joel Salatin, the fanatical grass farmer whom Pollan hails as a model of sustainability in The Omnivore’s Dilemma. But as Cline is the first to note, it took Beaumont decades to perfect her craft; her example can’t be knocked off.

Though several fast-fashion companies have made efforts to curb their impact on labor and the environment—including H&M, with its green Conscious Collection line—Cline believes lasting change can only be effected by the customer. She exhibits the idealism (or naivete) common to many proponents of sustainability, be it in food or in energy. Vanity is a constant; people will only start shopping more sustainably when they can’t afford not to.

That day may come sooner than we think. China makes an astounding 41 percent of the clothes America imports, including half of the dresses in our stores. As that country develops, labor costs will rise, which will inevitably drive up the price of that miniskirt.

Photographs by Peter Dazeley/Getty Images (umbrella); Chimpinkski/Shutterstock (cup); Bob Bishop/Getty Images (garbage bin))Photographs by Peter Dazeley/Getty Images (umbrella); Chimpinkski/Shutterstock (cup); Bob Bishop/Getty Images (garbage bin)


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Snapp, If You Don't Want a Beer

Three glamorous women stroll past bouncers into the VIP lounge of a trendy club. Rejecting the offer of a beer, they reach for a sparkling drink in a fluted glass before hitting the stage to sing for an adoring audience. It’s not a scene from a music video, but Diageo’s (DEO) latest sales pitch to Kenyan women. The world’s biggest distiller recently introduced an apple-flavored alcohol drink called Snapp, targeting female consumers in hopes of luring them to a more profitable alternative to beer, the predominant alcoholic beverage across Africa. The “Snapp Sisters” in the ads embody a growing wave of independent women, Diageo says, with their own decisions to make—and money to spend.

“Women are thinking about themselves in a new light,” says Cristina Diezhandino, Diageo’s head of marketing in Africa. With above-average income growth in Kenya and other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, there’s a growing sense of empowerment among the region’s estimated 100 million women above legal drinking age, she says. “They’re relying on their own means.”

Diageo, best known for Smirnoff vodka and Johnnie Walker whisky, already sells spirits, Tusker and Serengeti beers, and Guinness stout in Africa, which accounted for almost 14 percent of its revenue last year. The company’s African sales climbed to ?1.36 billion ($2.1 billion) in fiscal 2011, almost equal to the Asia-Pacific region, while revenue fell in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Snapp, which London-based Diageo started selling in Kenya in April, has an alcohol content of about 5 percent and costs about the same as mainstream beer in the country, East Africa’s largest economy. Translucent and fizzy, it comes in a bottle similar to Diageo’s Smirnoff Ice line of flavored ready-to-drink cocktails. Diageo suggests serving Snapp in tall champagne-style flutes, adding to the aura of glamour and luxury it’s set for the brand.

Tapping a female market effectively has been “the holy grail for the alcohol industry forever,” says Spiros Malandrakis, an analyst at Euromonitor International. “Most [African] advertising campaigns in the past have had a very masculine approach. I’m a bit skeptical about female-only launches.” And Jonny Forsyth, an analyst at market researcher Mintel, cautions that Diageo also could run into cultural resistance on a continent where many shun alcohol for religious reasons.

Diageo has reason for optimism, since Smirnoff Ice flavored drinks have won lots of female drinkers without directly targeting them. Also, the industry has seen the strong performance among women by Mozambique’s Laurentina Preta beer, SABMiller’s (SAB) fastest-growing brand in Africa. “This idea of strong women making decisions is universal,” says Diezhandino, who notes that beverage marketing can still be “bilingual” enough to appeal to men as well. “I have high hopes for Snapp.” Diageo won’t say how much it has invested in the brand, which may next be rolled out in oil-rich Nigeria.

Aside from Smirnoff Ice, Diageo says there aren’t other products like Snapp in Africa. SABMiller, though, is selling Redd’s, a malt-based, apple-flavored drink, in Kenya after introducing it in Tanzania in 2005. It’s a “premium” product in Africa, compared with Diageo’s mainstream pricing, and comes in different fruit flavors. The brand sponsors the Miss Tanzania contest.

Recruiting new drinkers is a priority for beverage makers as sales growth wanes in the developed world thanks to economic turmoil, maturing tastes, and competition. Diageo already has targeted niches in the U.S., creating products like Qream for black women and Nuvo, a sparkling vodka liqueur popular in Venezuela and Mexico that’s won favor with Hispanic women. Now it’s applying the same market segmentation strategy to the less-developed, yet faster-growing countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

The bottom line: Betting on rising incomes in fast-growing parts of Africa, Diageo has introduced ready-to-drink cocktails aimed at women in Kenya.


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Why Don't More Hospitals Use Electronic Health Records?

When the patient arrived, he started twitching uncontrollably. The elderly gentleman had been brought by worried family members to see a specialist at the Kaiser Permanente Santa Clara Medical Center in California late last year. The doctor there thought the man might be having an epileptic seizure—only he soon stopped twitching and, a minute later, seemed fine. Unsure of what to do next, the outpatient doctor called James Lin, chief of the hospital’s emergency department. Should he send the man to neurology, as he would an epileptic patient, or to emergency?

Lin, a fast-talking 38-year-old with brush-cut hair and freckles, had his colleague wait while he looked up the patient’s records on the hospital’s electronic health record (EHR) system. In an instant, he saw that the man had a history of twitching episodes from which he recovered quickly; usually people suffering epileptic seizures tend to remain confused and disoriented afterward. “Send him over to me right away,” Lin said. Minutes later, Lin put the patient on a cardiac monitor and confirmed that the man’s brain wasn’t the source of his medical issues. He watched as the patient’s heart rate slowed. There was a long pause between beats, during which the man started twitching again. He was at risk of cardiac arrest. Lin transferred him to the intensive care unit, where he was outfitted with a pacemaker in a matter of hours. Lin says the man might have died if he had gone to the neurology clinic. The doctors there don’t have cardiac monitors and might not have diagnosed his condition in time.

Lin finds EHR data invaluable in the ERJake Stangel for Bloomberg BusinessweekLin finds EHR data invaluable in the ER

Outcomes like these, Lin says, are precisely what Kaiser’s EHR system was designed for. Purchased from Epic Systems, a Verona (Wis.) company that’s one of the pioneers of electronic health records in the U.S., it cost $4 billion and took five years to get up and running. The system, which links Kaiser’s 37 hospitals, 15,857 physicians, and 9 million members, enables Lin and his fellow doctors to routinely save lives, he says. As he walks though his bustling emergency ward, weaving his way around patients in wheelchairs and on gurneys, he points out the PCs on wheeled platforms that doctors and nurses use to tap into the Epic databases. They look a bit like Segways without the ride-along platform. “We used to call them COWs, which was short for ‘computers on wheels,’?” Lin says. “But if we say we are going to push the COW in here, it doesn’t sound so good. So now we call them WOWs. That means ‘workstations on wheels.’?”

When people in health care talk about the promise of digital medical records, they often point to Kaiser Permanente. The Epic system is integral to America’s largest nonprofit health maintenance organization. The Oakland-based operation’s doctors use it for everything from scheduling appointments to ordering lab results. Kaiser’s members seem to like it, too. They can log into the system, check their medical records, and correspond with doctors via Epic’s secure e-mail system. “I have patients who send me pictures of their Hawaii vacations,” says Todd Dray, a Kaiser head and neck surgeon in Santa Clara. “I’m like, ‘That’s awesome. You know this is going into your electronic medical record?’?”

Kaiser had been gradually moving away from paper since the 1960s, but it decided to go all the way in 2003. It was a grueling process. Doctors initially objected to the conversion. There were system outages and a period of low productivity as the staff got up to speed. Today, however, Kaiser has the largest nongovernmental digital depository of medical records in the world, and the insurer says it has used this data to improve care. In an internal study, Kaiser found that the rate of heart attacks among 46,000 patients in Northern California who were 30 years and older has declined by 24 percent. Kaiser has also reduced mortality rates for its hospital patients who contract sepsis, a dangerous infectious disease, by 40 percent since 2008. Robert Pearl, executive director of Kaiser’s Permanente Medical Group, says the EHR had everything to do with it. “We were able to go into our databases and understand the progression of this disease and recognize why early intervention is so crucial,” he says.

Yet when Kaiser has to deal with other health-care groups, it confronts the same problems as the rest of the profession. For instance, it has a large clinic in Denver that works closely with two non-Kaiser hospitals. A few years ago, those hospitals decided to buy an EHR system. “We were a big part of their business,” says Jack Cochran, a plastic surgeon who is executive director of the Permanente Federation, which oversees Kaiser’s physicians. “We thought they should choose Epic. They said, ‘We don’t think we should.’?” Sure enough, when the hospitals installed their software, Kaiser couldn’t communicate with them electronically. Thankfully, the hospitals had fax machines.
The case for EHR has long been compelling: It can help recognize and contain epidemics, speed claims processing, and, of course, cut costs. The U.S. is spending $2.7 trillion annually on health care, a number that’s approaching 18 percent of gross domestic product. The size of the problem is spurring a philosophical change, from a system where doctors are paid for the volumes of procedures they complete to one in which they are paid for keeping their patients healthy.

It starts, though, with the physicians, and the pitch goes something like this: Liberated from paper charts, doctors will be able to search records more rapidly and share patient data with specialists or doctors in other locations, should a patient move or fall ill away from home. And physicians will no longer have to write prescriptions by hand. They will do it on an automated system that dispatches orders to the pharmacy and keeps track of dosage and refills. There will be fewer redundant tests as results are shared by labs. Emergency room doctors will log on to computerized databases and find out the results of a patient’s recent radiology test rather than reflexively subject them to another.

EHR evangelists say some of the more advanced systems will help doctors think by giving them digital prompts, such as warnings not to prescribe the wrong medication or suggestions about the latest treatments. “No doctor can keep it all in his head anymore,” says Ezekiel Emanuel, a former White House health-care policy adviser who is now at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. “They will help you put things together, give you reminders, and also analyze large amounts of data that even very smart people aren’t going to be able to keep up with anymore.”

Countries with national health-care systems such as Denmark, Sweden, and New Zealand have largely dispensed with records on paper. According to a study by the nonprofit Commonwealth Fund, Danish doctors reported in the late 1990s that they were saving 30 minutes a day by prescribing drugs and ordering lab reports electronically. A 2010 study by the same organization said the annual salaries of New Zealand’s family doctors had risen 50 percent in five years, thanks to increased funding and their prolific use of EHRs.

In the U.S., things are different. Some providers, such as Kaiser, the Mayo Clinic, and, interestingly, the Veterans Administration, have installed sophisticated data systems. For the most part, though, American doctors have resisted. They worry about the privacy of their patients’ records—and that plaintiffs’ attorneys will use the computerized data against them in malpractice suits. And they resent that they’re expected to shoulder the cost of new technology that might help their patients or insurance companies, but would do little for their own bottom lines.

Peter Ehrnstrom, a 48-year-old dermatologist in Anchorage, Alaska, gets the potential of EHR, and is reluctantly considering investing in a system. At the same time, he’s convinced his five-member practice might not recover from the transition. He says it’s typical for smaller physician-owned practices to lose 50 percent of their productivity while they get up to speed on their new EHR systems. Ehrnstrom says it takes him longer to type notes than to dash them off by hand. “If you add literally one minute per patient to my work, you’ve added 40 minutes to my day,” he says. “If you add five minutes per patient, you have now certainly just hit me with a 20 to 30 percent productivity loss.” Charles Cutler, an internist in Norristown, Pa., has done similar back-of-the-envelope calculations. “I don’t think we’re going to come out on the other side of this endeavor financially better than the old system of maintaining paper records,” he says.

The difference between the state-run approach and the market-driven one is stark. There are 551 certified medical information software companies in the U.S. selling 1,137 software programs. Some are big, such as GE HealthCare (GE) and Epic. Some are tiny niche players catering to sub-specialties. Their products have one thing in common: They don’t communicate with one another. And this is by design. EHR vendors, which charge as much as $25,000 per doctor for a system and a monthly subscription fee on top of that, want to lock out competitors while locking in customers for life.

In some ways these medical networks are developing as the cell-phone networks did; government has stepped back and let the market sort it all out, even if it means confusion. But at least a Verizon (VZ) subscriber can talk to someone on AT&T (T). That hasn’t been the case for EHR systems. A dermatologist using the latest system from one company can’t send a patient’s record to the allergist in the practice down the hall who uses a competing product. She has to print it out and deliver it by hand. The only way to meld the two systems electronically is to spend an additional $10,000 on a custom software patch. Little wonder, then, that many doctors stick with paper. In 2008 only 17 percent of U.S. physicians and 16 percent of American hospitals had advanced EHR technology.

Mostashari is Obama's point man on digitizing health dataGrant Cornett for Bloomberg BusinessweekMostashari is Obama's point man on digitizing health data

The pace of change has quickened, however. Convinced that he wouldn’t be able to fully insure the nation without electronic health records, newly elected President Barack Obama persuaded Congress to support the EHR effort with substantial amounts of cash. In February 2009, he signed the redundantly titled Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act, better known as the Hitech Act, which provides $27 billion in financial incentives for digital health record use. Outpatient physicians can receive as much as $44,000 from Medicare or $63,000 from Medicaid over five years if they can demonstrate that they are using the technology to improve care. Hospitals can be reimbursed for millions of dollars if they qualify. Conversely, those who don’t computerize will face monetary penalties starting in 2015.

“There’s no question that the health IT incentive program as a whole has really jump-started,” says Farzad Mostashari, the Obama administration’s national coordinator for health information technology. “It addressed some of the big financial barriers that were in place.” Mostashari says the administration has made “amazing” progress, doubling the number of doctors using basic computer systems to 34 percent in 2011—a number the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms. Thirty-five percent of U.S. hospitals now use them, too. “By the end of this year,” Mostashari predicts, “more than half of all American doctors and hospitals will have them.”

The Hitech Act was part of the president’s early economic stimulus effort. But it’s perhaps better understood as a precursor to his health-care reform initiative. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which Obama signed in 2010, is famous for its requirement that all Americans obtain some form of insurance. However, the 2,700-page law also calls for doctors and hospitals to form so-called accountable care organizations; these will receive extra money from Medicare and Medicaid for keeping patients healthy rather than subjecting them to endless procedures. They are expected to do so by using computers. “You can’t have the health-care reform act without electronic health records,” says Judy Hanover, a health-care technology industry analyst at IDC.

The reform act is now in jeopardy. The U.S. Supreme Court might toss out the entire thing before the end of June. Beginning in March, the court heard arguments from small businesses and 26 states challenging the law’s constitutionality, with some of the more conservative judges speaking publicly against the insurance requirement. But none of that will stop the Obama administration’s campaign to put an electronic records system in every doctor’s office, which is mandated by the previous, entirely different law.

To generate the efficiencies and savings Obama promises, the systems will have to communicate with each other better. Three years after the enactment of the Hitech Act, doctors and hospital administrators say there is little interoperability—the industry’s term—among computerized health records. Some would rather lose Medicare funding than buy software now. But without the technology, it’s difficult to see how the American health-care system can be restructured into something more affordable and equitable than the broken one that exists. “I think this is the last great hope for American medicine,” says Kaiser’s Pearl. “If we don’t solve this problem now, we will slide backwards.”
Each morning, Carlos Aguilar, an internal medicine specialist, brews himself a double espresso and drinks it in the car on his way to work at University Hospital in Cincinnati. Once he arrives, he can’t afford any wasted moments. Most of Aguilar’s patients are recovering on the hospital floor after a visit to the emergency room. It’s his job to discharge as many as possible by noon so more beds become available. If he falls behind, things get chaotic. “Sometimes the emergency room is so full, there are people on stretchers in the hallway,” he says. “It’s like a war zone.”

Aguilar’s experience with software can feel like war, too. If he wants a radiology report, he has to log into a McKesson program on the PC in the doctors’ lounge. If he wants to see an EKG, he has to use a program sold by GE. And if he wants to look at pathology reports, he has to boot up yet another program. “It’s so complex,” he says. “I have 10 different passwords.” He carries them on a sheet of paper. But even with his crib sheet, he spends so much time wrestling with the University EHR system that his patients sometimes stay an extra night. “The worst thing is, I have to change my passwords every three months,” Aguilar says. “It drives me crazy.”

At 37, Aguilar’s been using computers for most of his 13-year career. He’s not opposed to typing instead of writing, he just wishes the programs worked in concert. Nor is he the only doctor at University exasperated with the EHR system. Because of similar complications, surgeons at University’s intensive care unit have refused to use the hospital’s software to order medication. Others complain that they have to flip back and forth between the hospital’s EHR system and the one used by primary-care doctors affiliated with University to make sure they don’t accidentally prescribe drugs to patients who are allergic to them. Although GE makes both programs, they can’t exchange this basic information. The upshot: After multiple computer system purchases, University Hospital uses paper charts for all the patients it treats. (GE says its newer products work better together.)

Finally, in February 2011, UC Health, the three-hospital chain that owns University Hospital, decided to mortgage its state-of-the-art hospital in suburban West Chester and invest the proceeds in an elaborate new EHR system that integrates all these functions. The new software is designed by Epic, the same company Kaiser uses; it goes live in the ambulatory departments of all three UC Health hospitals on July 10.

As with previous upgrades, not everyone at University is enthusiastic. There has been a fair amount of griping among its 700 physicians about the mandatory eight hours of training. Two members of the ophthalmology department, one of whom is an internationally known eye tumor specialist, are refusing to participate. UC Health has decided not to make a stink about it. “Yes, we’ve got two docs who said ‘Hell, no,’?” concedes Robert Wones, vice president for medical affairs at University. “But everybody else is on board.”
The point man for solving the interoperability dilemma is Mostashari. A Yale School of Medicine graduate who favors bow ties, Mostashari has his team drawing up a multistage process in which doctors and hospitals are required to use electronic medical records to exchange data, among other things, if they are to qualify for Hitech money. The process is called “meaningful use.”

The first stage went into effect last year. It required providers to use their systems to prescribe drugs electronically. That was simple enough. “I have this chart in front of me,” Mostashari boasts. “In March, 45 percent of doctors were e-prescribing. When the stimulus bill passed, the number was just a little bit over 5 percent.” The next phase is scheduled to go into effect in 2014, and it’s already contentious. Although the rules have yet to be finalized, they’re likely to require doctors and hospitals to start exchanging considerable amounts of information with one another.

Lobbyists for doctors and hospitals are furious about the proposed changes. They note that most EHR systems are incapable of doing what Mostashari will probably require. “Due to physicians’ limited ability to exchange data with other health-care partners, many of the proposed Stage 2 measures will require extensive manual data entry, which is not an efficient way of practicing medicine,” AMA Board Chairman-Elect Steven Sack said in a May press release.

Health-care providers blame the software industry. Software companies blame the government. They say they are waiting for Mostashari’s office to come up with common standards so that digital systems can speak to each other. “There are a lot of different standards out there,” laments Jan De Witte, chief executive officer of GE HealthCare IT. “But that’s the issue. There are too many standards.” Mostashari says he isn’t interested in dictating EHR use the way Denmark did. (Denmark insists that all primary-care doctors use them.) Instead, he wants to forge a consensus between GE and Epic, technology companies such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC), insurers like Kaiser Permanente, health-care industry lobbies, and a myriad of additional interest groups. The process hasn’t exactly been smooth. “There was a religious war about what lab messaging standard to use,” Mostashari says, sighing. “We were like, Who cares? Pick one.”

In the meantime, the Obama administration is counting on “health information exchanges” to provide regional connectivity. These in effect are partnerships that operate software patches similar to the ones EHR companies offer to their clients. But generally speaking, these hubs don’t let their members exchange the level of information that Kaiser or Mayo Clinic do internally. “We are bringing all these little groups together, but we are going to have the same problem,” says Marc Probst, chief information officer at Intermountain Healthcare, a hospital chain based in Salt Lake City known for its advanced EHR system. And even if you can connect a bunch of doctors in Ohio, they still can’t communicate with ones in New York.

The seemingly endless quest will continue even if Obama doesn’t win a second term. Republican candidate Mitt Romney also believes digital records can help increase efficiency and lower health-care costs. But it’s hard to see how if these systems ignore each other. Which is why some in the industry think the government should have resolved the standards issue before handing out billions of dollars to doctors and hospitals to buy software. Nevertheless, the purchasing spree Obama started continues. Hanover of IDC predicts that by 2015, annual spending on EHR will climb to $3.8 billion.

Small practitioners such as Edward Rippel are trying to figure it out, too. Until six years ago, the only computer in his Hamden (Conn.) office was the PC he used to send personal e-mail. Then insurance companies started offering bonuses to physicians who kept patients healthy. Rippel, who is 49 years old, felt that he was providing that kind of care. Documenting it on spreadsheets would be too much work. So he invested $50,000 in a digital record system developed by eClinicalWorks.

The conversion involved a laborious amount of data entry, but Rippel, who grew up in the Bronx and paid off his medical school loans by working at a federal prison, didn’t relent. He spent his nights and weekends entering data for 4,000 patient files into the new system. When he was finished, he sold his chart racks to another doctor and converted the newfound space into a manager’s office. Now, when a physician sends a paper copy of a patient’s mammogram, Rippel’s staff scans the document, enters the data into the computer file, and shreds the original.

When Rippel began using electronic records, 40 percent of his diabetic patients were in their target range for hemoglobin A1C levels, a standard measure of blood sugar. A year later, the number was 50 percent. Two years after that, it was 70 percent. One morning in June, he sits at his computer and pulls up a list of his diabetic patients. With a few keystrokes, he identifies those who are overdue for screening tests. Seconds later, he can e-mail them a reminder in English and Spanish.

The benefits of Rippel’s technologic investment often end at his door. Only a small fraction of other doctors in the area use electronic records. One physician he knows has the same software, yet he only uses the digital calendar. Others with EHR systems find it easier to fax paperwork to Rippel than to send it electronically.

Even so, Rippel has no regrets. He says he made the $50,000 back in two years because insurers raised his reimbursements. He looks forward to the day when every doctor is wired into a digital information network. “That’s the dream, so to speak,” he says. “It will very likely come true. I just don’t know when.”

Leonard is a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek in New York. Tozzi is a reporter for Bloomberg Businessweek in New York.

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When to Take the Blame at Work

The first paycheck I earned as a writer came from a freelance job I briefly held at a small newspaper when I was still in college. I covered groundbreaking stories with such headlines as ”Deep-Fried Candy Bars: A County Fair Favorite,” “Underage Drinking Popular on Campus,” and “Local Man Makes Sculptures out of Trash.” I was young and inexperienced, and no one had ever explained the concept of copyediting to me. So when an editor told me she’d changed the term “rain boots” to “galoshes” in a story I’d written about springtime fashion trends, I didn’t check the final version before it went to print. When I saw it in the paper, I was horrified to discover the article appeared as a musing on the colorful, polka-dotted goulash—the Hungarian stew.

It was my first official error and it wasn’t even my fault. But indirectly it was. I apologized to my editor for not checking the final version; she apologized to me for making me write about stew; and our copy editor would have apologized to both of us, except the newspaper was so small it didn’t have one—which is probably how an article about the patterned rubber goulash made it into print. I’m still so embarrassed by this mix-up that I’ve never told the story to anyone until now. But I’m sharing it with you, because while writing this paragraph makes me want to hide under the covers, it’s also a good example of how to take the blame at work. I may not have known how to proof a story back then, but according to Ben Dattner, organizational psychologist and author of The Blame Game, I did the right thing when it came to office diplomacy. I apologized.

“Credit and blame are part of our self-perception,” Dattner explains. “Whether we feel properly appreciated is related to our self-esteem. Do we view ourselves as valued by our employer? Or do we feel scapegoated and wronged in our jobs?” Dattner says that usually when we’re blamed at work for a minor infraction that isn’t our fault, we should just let it go. There are two reasons why: “One, the amount of time it’ll take you to explain, ‘It wasn’t my fault, it was so-and-so’s,’ is probably way more than anyone cares to hear about it,” he says. By the time you’ve conveyed what happened, you wind up looking like a hypersensitive tattletale. Second, the problem probably is your fault—even if just a little bit. “It’s almost always the case that there’s something you could have done to prevent the issue from happening,” Dattner says. Yeah, like double-check that your article isn’t accidentally about goulash.

People hate accepting responsibility when something goes wrong. We avoid blame even when it’s justified, and we’re quick to pin it on others whenever we can. Finding out what went wrong and who caused something to happen can be undeniably important: If we know why certain public schools fail, why an airplane crashed, or where the recession originated, maybe we can make sure the problem doesn’t happen again. But remedies can be incredibly hard to find, and they’re often buried under layers and layers of corporate or bureaucratic buck-passing. In 2009, NPR’s Planet Money counted 196 separate lawsuits that were nothing more than banks suing other banks over the fact that they’d all gone broke. Sometimes it’s just easier to step up and say, “I should have done better,” even when you don’t feel the problem is your fault at all.

Lynn works at a Michigan analytics company and has a manager who routinely sacrifices her employees’ professional reputations to save her own. “I’ve had to take the blame in front of supervisors of other departments, and I’m sure she’s told a client that, too,” she says. Lynn doesn’t mind, except when it impinges upon her career. Once, when her manager tried to blame her for something in front of the top boss, Lynn says she took the boss aside and set the record straight. “That was a couple of years ago,” she says. “Now [my manager] thinks I’m awesome and would probably only blame me if she really had no one else to pin it on.”

Lynn’s pretty canny about what sort of blame she’ll accept; she takes it when it doesn’t hurt her reputation and wins her manager’s favor, but she defends herself when the accusations cross the line. Ann, who works at art auctions in Northern California, uses a different tactic: She doesn’t accept errant blame, but she doesn’t deny it either.

“Once, at one of our auctions, I was working the front desk and there were five or six Bic pens on the table,” Ann explains. “My boss walked by and went, ‘Who’s securing these pens? Someone could just walk away with one of these!’ Never mind they’re like 99? for a pack.” Ann had no idea why her boss cared about the pens, but she took them off the table. “Ten minutes later, he needed to write something down and went, ‘Goddammit, Ann, what the hell did you do with all of the pens?’ So I put the pens back.” She didn’t apologize, but she didn’t point out her boss’s irrationality to him, either.

Dattner says both Lynn and Ann have made smart decisions about accepting blame: “Making yourself more vulnerable in short term can make you powerful in long term.” But, he says, the type of infractions this rule applies to must be relatively minor—maybe a report isn’t ready on time, or one of the projects you’re working on came in over budget. Taking the blame never applies to illegal or unethical situations. As soon as something like that happens, the rules change. Don’t lie, don’t cheat, don’t cook the books or let someone pretend that you did. There’s a difference between taking one for the team and being the fall guy.

And if you work at a newspaper, you should probably learn how to spell “goulash.”


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Microsoft's Surface Tablets Raise the Bar for PC Pals

On a wonderfully bright Monday afternoon in Hollywood, Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s (MSFT) chief executive officer, appeared at an art and film studio to deliver what looks like Microsoft’s finest, most controversial product in ages. In fact, it’s a family of products—a line of “Surface” tablet computers aimed at both consumers and workers.

As it does with the Xbox, Microsoft has opted to make the Surface tablets—both hardware and software—on its own. This stands as a huge affront to Microsoft’s longtime PC partners. Making matters worse, the Surface products look far better than anything else the PC makers have shown to date on the tablet front. Even Apple (AAPL) has been put on notice, if the hoots and hollers from the event were any indication.

The first Surface device shown weighs about 1.5 pounds and is 9 mm thick. A second, the Surface Pro, is slightly thicker and heavier. Both tablets come with a built-in kickstand, so you can stand them up to watch movies and the like. Microsoft also did something innovative with its new tablet covers. It had them attach to the the tablets with a firm click and designed them to be keyboards. The Type Cover has keys printed into the cover while the slightly bigger Touch Cover has raised keys.

The keyboard/cover combo is a fantastic idea that immediately makes you question future laptop purchases. That’s yet a further blow against Microsoft’s PC buddies. When Windows 8 launches this fall, Microsoft will sell the tablets through its own online and retail stores and nowhere else. The company declined to reveal pricing details at the June 18 event.

In an interview afterward, Ballmer said Microsoft’s PC partners had been made aware of its plans. When asked to describe how they felt about Microsoft’s moves, Ballmer responded that he had used very precise language on stage and would not go beyond that. (He said nothing on stage that I recall as to how they felt.) As for plans to sell the tablets beyond Microsoft’s own channels, Ballmer again would not budge. “That’s all we are going to announce today,” he said. That’s that, then.

During his speech, Ballmer talked about the push and pull of software and hardware: Sometimes the hardware makers can’t keep up with the software makers’ innovation. So Microsoft decided to take matters into its own hands and showcase all that Windows 8 can do at a time when the company is feeling tremendous pressure from Apple. “This is a tool to surface your passions,” Ballmer said.

Steven Sinofsky, the head of Windows, followed Ballmer on stage and was visibly nervous. His voice shook, as did his hands—to the point that he wrecked a couple of touchscreen demos. Still, he returned again and again to the industrial design work Microsoft did to make the Surface products. Gushing about the kickstand, he said: “The hinged design is like that of the finest luxury car.” About the cover, he said, “Click. You heard that. It’s solid. It feels great in your hand, like a book. It just fits there.”

Microsoft designed 200 custom parts for the tablets and said that if you tried to cram a piece of sticky tape inside the device, it would bulge with imperfection. Steve Jobs would be proud.


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Beef: The New Opiate of the Russian Masses?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has an ambitious plan to cut his country’s $3 billion annual import bill for beef. He even aspires to return Russia’s beef industry to its pre-revolutionary stature. To get there, however, he’s depending on an unlikely savior: Anthony Stidham, a 48-year-old, third-generation rancher from Oklahoma. At Russia’s largest beef farm, about 400 kilometers (250 miles) southwest of Moscow, Stidham is among a tiny group of foreign cattlemen hired to school locals in livestock-rearing—everything from branding cows to easing a stuck calf through the birth canal. If all goes according to plan, Russia could someday send foreign beef suppliers like Tyson Foods (TSN) of Springdale, Ark., and Sao Paulo-based Brasil Foods (BRFS) heading for customs.

With its expanding middle class and a tripling of some wages in recent years, Russia is experiencing a surge in demand for beef. So Moscow has cut import quotas to help revive a cattle-breeding tradition decimated under the rule of Joseph Stalin. Putin wants the country to meet 85 percent of its own meat needs by 2020, compared with 65 percent today; he’s pumping money into the fledgling meat industry and letting it bring in talent—and cows—from abroad.

“There’s no place in the U.S., Australia, or anywhere in the world that will have cattle as good as what they are putting together here,” says Stidham, who was recruited last year after answering an advertisement in a farming publication.

Over the past decade, Stidham’s employer, Miratorg Agribusiness Holding, Russia’s biggest meat importer, has received state financing, investment subsidies, and tax benefits to start the $800 million project in Bryansk. Set up by brothers Alexander and Viktor Linnik in 1995, the company became Russia’s largest pork producer in 2010 and has moved into poultry. To help fund continued expansion, it sold 3 billion rubles ($92.7 million) of bonds last year and may sell more this year, Chief Financial Officer Vadim Kotenko says. An initial public offering is being considered.

Miratorg has Texas-size ambitions: It already runs 16 beef farms around Bryansk, with an additional 17 set to open in the area by the end of 2013. Another three are under construction in Kaliningrad, on the Baltic Sea. Each operation has about 3,000 breeding cows. “There’s just nothing in the U.S. that big,” Stidham says, in reference to the Bryansk complex of ranches.

One of 10 U.S. ranchers employed at Bryansk, Stidham says his students are willing to work around the clock to learn the intricacies of the cattle business. Although he’s also teaching them cowboy basics such as horse riding and roping, “our main role is just to train Russians on how to handle livestock, from different methods of feeding, to being able to recognize different illnesses or injuries,” says Stidham.

Ranching on the Great Plains this isn’t. First, Russia has only about 250,000 beef cows, representing about 1 percent of its total herd of mainly dairy cattle. So Miratorg has brought in 60,000 head of livestock since last July. The imported Aberdeen Angus, a Scottish breed of hornless black beef cattle, have had to cope with winter temperatures that can plummet as low as –35C (–31F) after making the four-week journey by sea and road from the U.S. and Australia. “This breed can adapt perfectly to any climate, it just grows as much hair as needed in a certain temperature and then passes on this genetic trait to calves,” Kotenko says.

At Bryansk, the plan is to almost double the size of the parent herd by the end of 2013. With new calves, the integrated operation, which involves everything from slaughterhouses to meat-processing facilities, will expand more than fourfold to 250,000 head by 2014. It will be able to produce 104,000 meat bulls a year and supply 30,000 metric tons of boneless beef to the Russian market. It will take time to determine the project’s success. “The production cycle takes 40 days for poultry, six months for pork, and a whole 16 months for beef, which makes it the most capital-intensive,” Kotenko says. “We’ve been working on a feasibility study for two years, and at least five banks declined to fund the beef project, labeling it too risky.”

Bankers also worried about the waning popularity of beef in established markets elsewhere. In the U.S. and other developed nations, beef consumption has been declining since the mid-1970s in favor of cheaper pork and poultry, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. But Russians consume only 17 kilograms of beef per capita annually, or half the U.S. equivalent, reports the Moscow-based National Meat Association. So domestic consumption should have plenty of room to rise.

VEB, Russia’s state development bank, agreed in 2010 when Putin was its chairman to finance Miratorg’s beef project, which also benefits from cut-rate loans from the government. Beef imports—competition for local operators like Miratorg—are also subject to quotas, as Putin seeks to shore up domestic production to reduce dependence on imports. “This can be seen as the first step for the Russian cattle industry to regain its lost position,” says Albert Vernooij, an industry analyst at Rabobank Group. “However, with strong competition for land and continuing high feed costs, this might be a long process.”

The czarist tradition of breeding meat cattle was lost in the 1930s when Stalin enforced a drive toward collective farms. The country has mainly slaughtered retired dairy cows for meat ever since. That’s taken a toll on beef lovers: “A steak out of a 7-year-old milk cow is tough and thin,” explains Igor Bukharov, president of the Federation of Restaurateurs and Hoteliers of Russia. Only with the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, as Russia started importing beef from New Zealand, Argentina, and the U.S., did consumers acquire a taste for better cuts, says Bukharov.

Russia purchased 1.1 million tons of beef and veal from abroad last year, according to USDA data, the equivalent of about 3.3 million fattened steers. Beef imports were valued at $2.6 billion in 2011, making up about 33 percent of domestic consumption. Tyson Foods, Brasil Foods, Cargill, and JBS are currently among the biggest suppliers of beef to Russia, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation. But as the example of Bryansk is replicated elsewhere in Russia, the nation’s meat producers hope that the country one day will not only be able to meet internal demand but also export beef for the first time. “Russia has all opportunities to be a big beef exporter in 10 to 15 years,” Kotenko says.

The bottom line: To lower its $3 billion annual cost to import beef, Russia is bringing in foreign talent to help it revive its cattle business.

Khrennikov is a reporter for Bloomberg News in Moscow. Sysoyeva is a reporter for Bloomberg News in Moscow.

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How Adidas Is Whipping Reebok Into Shape

At a CrossFit gym in Nuremberg, Germany, customers sweat through a workout called “Fight Gone Bad.” The same could be said for Adidas’s (ADS) effort to turn around the foundering Reebok, the shoemaker it bought in 2006. The workouts require people “to keep up the intensity, each and every time,” says Ginger Sladky, 40, who set up the gym in March with support from Reebok, which sponsors CrossFit worldwide.

Adidas hopes sponsoring CrossFit, an exercise routine done in gyms called “boxes,” will restore Reebok’s intensity. The brand that helped make step aerobics a staple around the world two decades ago has posted sales declines for three of the five full years since Adidas bought it for $3.7 billion. The company, which won’t say how much it’s paying for the sponsorship, has designed clothing and shoes for the routine and splashed the Reebok name across 70 gyms in 30 countries affiliated with CrossFit, a Washington, D.C., licensing company.

Photographs by NBAE/Getty Images (James); Getty Images (Woods, Packers jersey); Marc Larkin/UPPA/ZUMAPRESS (Osbourne); Cornelius Poppe/AFP/Getty Images (Bolt); Richard Heathcote/Getty Images (soccer ball)Click to enlargePhotographs by NBAE/Getty Images (James); Getty Images (Woods, Packers jersey); Marc Larkin/UPPA/ZUMAPRESS (Osbourne); Cornelius Poppe/AFP/Getty Images (Bolt); Richard Heathcote/Getty Images (soccer ball)

Reebok is cooperating with an Indian government investigation of alleged fraud by two former executives there. And in April it lost a contract to outfit the U.S. National Football League, which may cost Adidas more than €200 million ($250 million) annually in lost revenue. After a brief sales bounce due to its “toning” shoes, which the company claimed help strengthen leg and butt muscles, Reebok has forecast another drop in revenue this year. In September, Reebok agreed to a $25 million settlement to pay for consumer refunds after the U.S. Federal Trade Commission accused the company of deceptive health claims about its toning footwear. Reebok said at the time that it disagreed with the FTC’s allegations.

Given the bad news, Reebok will post revenue of €2.6 billion in 2015, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg—short of the €3 billion Reebok pledged to investors. Despite losing the NFL contract, Adidas says it stands by its goal and expects its two-year-old deal with CrossFit to close the gap. “We want to change the way the world perceives and experiences fitness,” says Chris Froio, Reebok’s global head of fitness.

CrossFit, with more than 3,000 gyms worldwide, promises a complete workout in less than 20 minutes. Routines sporting names like “Nasty Girls” and “Bad Karma” include push-ups, “sumo deadlift highpulls,” and “glute-ham developer hip extensions.” CrossFit’s popularity has swelled as people get hooked on both its speed and the ability to challenge other participants via Facebook (FB) and Twitter. “It’s an excellent fit for Reebok, which has been in the woods for a while as it’s struggled to decide what it wants to be,” says John Birnsteel, head of strategy at FutureBrand, a branding consultancy. “It was appearing to box itself in as a very female-oriented fitness brand.”

It may be tough for the CrossFit partnership to offset the lost NFL contract, which went to rival Nike (NKE) after Reebok had held it for more than a decade. “I would see [CrossFit] more as a long-term strategy for growth rather than a switch-and-swap revenue tactic,” says Manfred Abraham of marketing consultancy Interbrand. Sales for Reebok dropped 5.5 percent in the first quarter, vs. a 17 percent increase for the Adidas brand. Given all the turmoil, Reebok’s value may have dropped by as much as half since Adidas bought it, says Sebastian Frericks, an analyst at Bankhaus Metzler in Frankfurt. “Reebok,” he says, “was probably not a good investment and will never be.”

The bottom line: With Reebok’s sales declining, owner Adidas expects a partnership with CrossFit gyms to reinvigorate the brand.


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Briefs

Facebook (FB) is developing ways to let companies use real-time location data to target consumers with mobile ads. After Facebook’s May IPO, shares fell as much as 32 percent in part because of investor concerns that the social network’s mobile ad revenue wasn’t keeping up with the growing number of users who access Facebook via smartphones. Facebook has been testing new ad products and showed almost a dozen ideas to corporate chief marketing officers and agency executives. While it’s also testing mobile “offers” that let retailers give coupons to customers who are nearby, Facebook trails Google (GOOG), which takes in half of all mobile ad sales.

Drugmakers don’t have to pay sales representatives overtime, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a 5-to-4 decision that will save the industry billions of dollars. The court said drug reps are exempt from a federal wage-and-hour law because they are considered “outside salesmen” even though they don’t specifically take orders from doctors. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), which was sued by two employees, had argued that representatives are salespeople because they’re trained to get commitments from doctors to prescribe drugs.

Ford (F) says software upgrades to fix glitches in its dashboard touch screens came too late to improve quality scores in the J.D. Power & Associates new-car survey. Ford is now ranked 27th, down from 5th in 2010, in part because of the touch screens. The software upgrade this March, which includes faster touch responses and improved phone controls, didn’t go far enough to please many owners, says Consumer Reports auto-test chief David Champion. He says aside from the high-tech features, Ford’s basic quality is good.

Merck’s (MRK) use of cartoon characters from the movie Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted to market the children’s allergy drug Claritin is dangerous and deceptive, say 11 advocacy groups in a complaint filed with the Federal Trade Commission. The FTC restricts drug marketing to kids. The marketing campaign for grape-flavored chewable children’s Claritin includes free Madagascar stickers, a mail-in movie ticket voucher, and film-themed games. Merck says the ads are aimed at parents, not kids.

The growing popularity of the iPad (AAPL), Toyota’s Prius, and other devices that use lithium-ion batteries is a boon for miners. Prices for lithium have tripled since 2000 as more products use the technology. About 95 percent of the lithium market is controlled by four companies, headed by the Australian firm Talison Lithium (TLH). Rio Tinto (RIO), the world’s third-biggest mining company, may become a leading supplier if it continues developing a new site in Serbia, which would be the world’s first new lithium mine in 25 years.

— Facebook: CTO Bret Taylor leaves to start own company.

— J.C. Penney: President Michael Francis resigns.

— Yahoo!: Google’s Michael Barrett joins as revenue chief.

— News Corp.: Dow Jones President Todd Larsen departs.


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sexta-feira, 22 de junho de 2012

A Turkish Startup Is the Sultan of Social Gaming

It’s probably fair to say that few American have heard of Peak Games, the Istanbul-based startup that recently became the world’s No. 3 social-gaming company in terms of daily active users (DAU). That’s because Peak develops and publishes online games that are culturally targeted at Turkish, Middle Eastern, and North African markets. All but one of the games are available only in Turkish and Arabic.

The company, which creates Facebook (FB), mobile, and browser-based games, announced last week that it has over 9.4 million daily users. Zynga (ZNGA) and King.com, the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 companies, have 57.3 million and 12.3 million, respectively, according to online data provider AppData. (Note: Peak’s number is based on a combination of developed and published games, while AppData provides these numbers separately. Also, these numbers have shifted since last week but Peak remains in the No. 3 spot.)

Peak Games has experienced rapid growth since late 2010, when the company’s three founders set up shop in the small storage room of an air conditioning store owned by one co-founder’s father. At the time, Peak’s goal was to create culturally specific games for the Turkish market, starting with an online adaption of the traditional Turkish tile-based board game, Okey. “Back then, Turkey was the fourth-largest country on Facebook and there was no local player or even global player who was providing relevant content or relevant services to the region,” says Rina Onur, the company’s co-founder and chief strategy officer, who graduated from Harvard in 2008 with a B.A. in economics and briefly worked at Morgan Stanley (MS) as an analyst. She explains that most big social-gaming companies simply translate Western games into Turkish.

When Okey took off (the game now has 18 million users), Peak’s team moved to more comfortable office space. In 2011, they secured funding to expand into the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), regions that Onur says have “similar cultures, a similar history, similar user habits … and Internet and Facebook penetration that is growing really, really fast.”

The company’s first release in MENA was a game with a name that translates as Happy Farm. That game has since become the world’s No. 2 farm game, after Farmville. It includes characters, buildings, and animals that are specific to Peak’s targeted regions. “In the Turkish version, the farmer is not covered, while in our Arabic version there is a Saudi man with a cultural outfit,” says Onur. “We don’t have cowboys or American horses.”

In February, Peak acquired Saudi Arabia’s largest gaming company, Kammelna, creator of a popular online version of the beloved local card game, Baloot. Saudi Arabia is now Peak’s second-largest market, after Turkey. It’s a good market to have cornered, says Onur. “There’s high levels of disposable income but not a lot of liberty in terms of going out and socializing, so people use these games as a platform to meet each other, express themselves, and interact,” she explains. “They’re like online coffee shops.”

Since last year, Peak’s revenues have skyrocketed by 600 percent, according to Onur. The company now has about 200 employees in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, as well as in offices in Berlin and Barcelona. Peak has also secured over $20 million in funding from investors in Belgium, Germany, and the Middle East.

Peak has no plans to make its locally targeted games available in English, as they don’t hold the same relevance for Western cultures. But Onur says the team may eventually expand its offerings of “global themed” games such as its latest release, Lost Bubble. Peak created the “bubble shooter, arcade-style game” for a dozen languages because it isn’t culturally specific, and it picked up a million daily users in two weeks. “To our surprise, without pushing the product in Western markets, we got a huge number of organic users, especially in Europe,” says Onur. “It proved to us that the developing capabilities we have built over the past year and a half … are comparable to those of our global peers.”

Regardless of Lost Bubble‘s success, Peak’s primary focus remains servicing and creating content for Turkey and MENA. It’s a market that the company has locked down, according to Onur. ”Global players with money and resources are not focusing on these games,” she says. “And the local players in our regions are too small to compete.”

The company’s next goal is to expand slowly and sustainably into such new emerging markets as Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, bringing more local games online. According to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, it’s a solid strategy. “They’re obviously doing something right, and what’s interesting is that they’re focused on such a narrow market,” he says—noting he hasn’t played Peak’s games because they aren’t translated. “If their games work in that market, they’ll work anywhere. They just need to localize them and get the language right.”


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Small U.S. Manufacturers Give Up on 'Made in China'

When Sonja Zozula and Jerry Anderson founded LightSaver Technologies in 2009, everyone told them they should make their emergency lights for homeowners in China. After two years of outsourcing to factories there, last winter they shifted production ?to Carlsbad, Calif., about 30 miles from their home in San Clemente. “It’s probably 30 percent cheaper to manufacture in China,” Anderson says. “But factor in shipping and all the other B.S. that you have to endure. It’s a question of, ‘How do I value my time at three in the morning when I have to talk to China?’?”

As costs in China rise and owners look closely at the hassles of using factories 12,000 miles and 12 time zones away, many small companies have decided manufacturing overseas isn’t worth the trouble. American production is “increasingly competitive,” says Harry Moser, founder of the Reshoring Initiative, a group of companies and trade associations trying to bring factory jobs back to the U.S. “In the last two years there’s been a dramatic increase” in the amount of work returning.

LightSaver executives no longer spend hours on the phone with ChinaPhotograph by Michael Schmelling for Bloomberg BusinessweekLightSaver executives no longer spend hours on the phone with China

An April poll of 259 U.S. contract manufacturers—which make goods for other companies—showed 40 percent of respondents benefited this year from work previously done abroad. And nearly 80 percent were optimistic about 2012 sales and profits, according to the survey by MFG.com, a website that helps companies find manufacturers. “A decade ago you just went to China. You didn’t even look locally,” says Ted Fogliani, chief executive officer of Outsource Manufacturing, the San Diego company working with LightSaver. “Now people are trying to come back. Everyone knows they’re miserable.”

For LightSaver, the decision was simple. Neither of the founders has ever been to China, which made communicating with manufacturers difficult. Components that were shipped from the U.S. sometimes got stuck in customs for weeks. And Anderson had to spend hours on the phone to explain tweaks in the product. “If we have an issue in manufacturing, in America we can walk down to the plant floor,” Anderson says. “We can’t do that in China.” Anderson says manufacturing in the U.S. is probably 2 percent to 5 percent cheaper once he takes into account the time and trouble of outsourcing production overseas.

Dana Olson makes a living convincing small manufacturers that it pays to produce domestically. About 10 percent of the roughly 60 companies that his Minneapolis firm, Ecodev, has worked with have moved manufacturing to the U.S. or decided not to send it overseas, and another half-dozen are considering similar moves. “There’s a growing sense, with the economy doing what it’s doing, of U.S. companies wanting to produce in the United States,” says Olson. “It’s very important to them to have ‘Made in the U.S.A.’ on their label again.”

Since 2008, Ultra Green Packaging, one of Olson’s clients, has used manufacturers in China to make compostable plates and containers from wheat straw and other organic materials. By yearend, Ultra Green expects to start producing the bulk of its wares at a plant in North Dakota to cut freight costs and protect its intellectual property. “They’re infamous over there for knocking [products] off,” says Phil Levin, chairman of the 10-employee company. “All anybody needs to do is find a different factory and make a mold.”

For Unilife (UNIS), moving production to the U.S. helped it win regulatory approval for an important product: prefilled syringes with retractable needles that make it almost impossible for medical personnel to accidentally stick themselves. Although the company used Chinese manufacturers for earlier offerings, syringes preloaded with medications are subject to stringent U.S. Food and Drug Administration rules. So in March 2011, Unilife began making its syringes at a $32 million, 165,000-square-foot plant it built in York, Pa. “The very thing in the U.S.A. that oftentimes we complain about—the complexity of the rules and the regulations—works for us,” says CEO Alan Shortall. “FDA compliance is the main reason we’re here.”

Even with strong Mandarin skills, Brian Bethke grew frustrated with manufacturing in China. The co-founder of Pigtronix, which makes pedals that create electric guitar sound effects, discovered that he couldn’t adequately monitor quality at Chinese factories. The original idea for the company was to develop products in the U.S. and make them in China, where Bethke was living. But after several years of finding technical glitches in as many as 30 percent of pedals, the company decided to move production to Port Jefferson, N.Y. At its small factory in a Long Island office park, the company can run multiple tests on its products and even has a guitarist play each of the 500 to 1,000 pedals it sells monthly before they’re packed and shipped.

U.S. production lets Pigtronix more extensively test its guitar pedalsPhotograph by William Mebane for Bloomberg BusinessweekU.S. production lets Pigtronix more extensively test its guitar pedals

Pigtronix’s move back, completed three years ago, has helped improve cash flow. While manufacturing pedals in the U.S. can cost anywhere from three to six times as much as it does in China, Bethke says Pigtronix benefits from not having capital tied up in products that spend weeks in transit and then pile up in inventory. “In China, you have high minimum quantities you have to order, so you’re building a couple thousand of every guitar pedal,” Bethke says. “Your carrying costs start to get huge.” Today the company only makes those pedals it’s confident it can sell quickly.

While goods for U.S. consumers are less likely to be made in China these days, overseas production may still make sense for companies that plan to target foreign markets. “What we’re seeing is regionalization, buying stuff from manufacturers in the region where you’re going to sell it,” says Michael Degen, CEO of Nortech Systems (NSYS), a contract manufacturer based in Wayzata, Minn., that has eight factories in the U.S. and one in Mexico. “It’s very noticeable. … We’ve seen movement in terms of manufacturing in country for country.”

The bottom line: Although manufacturing in China can cost a third what it does in American factories, small companies are bringing production back to the U.S.

Rocks is a senior editor for Bloomberg Businessweek in New York. Leiber is Small Business editor for Businessweek.com, Entrepreneurs editor for Bloomberg.com, and covers small business for Bloomberg Businessweek.

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An NBA Stylist Tells Why LeBron Sports Eyeglasses

Rachel Johnson, 38, either has one of the best jobs in professional sports or the worst. She’s the personal stylist for NBA superstars such as Amar’e Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, and Chris Paul, among many others. Which means she spends her days finding clothes for people who might as well have gigantism. Because of her influence, the Miami Heat’s LeBron James—whom all eyes will be watching on Tuesday night at game four of the NBA Finals—was dubbed “the Game’s Best-Dressed” by GQ magazine. But what about his headbands, which haven’t been fashionable since Olivia Newton-John got physical? Is Johnson responsible for those? We decided to call her and find out.Dontari Poe, a likely first-round pick in the 2012 NFL draft, is fitted for a suit by Rachel Johnson at the Joseph Abboud showroom a few days before the draft, in New York.Photograph by Richard Perry/The New York Times via ReduxDontari Poe, a likely first-round pick in the 2012 NFL draft, is fitted for a suit by Rachel Johnson at the Joseph Abboud showroom a few days before the draft, in New York.

You want to make a prediction about tonight’s game?
My prediction is: Whoever scores the most points in the paint and whoever has the most offensive rebounds tonight is going to win this game.

I meant predictions about fashion.
Like how? What the players will be wearing?

How about headbands? Is LeBron going with one or two headbands tonight?
(Laughs.) I have no clue.

Was the headband your idea?
No, that’s all him. The headbands really are functional for him. He wears them literally to keep sweat out of his eyes.

Are you sure he’s not just hiding his receding hairline?
No, no. He’s extremely active on the court, always flying around, blocking, doing more than anyone else. It’s not really a fashion statement. It’s definitely more about function.

If Miami wins, LeBron is going to have a busy schedule. There’ll be parades, talk shows, and so forth. Have you been working on his media-blitz wardrobe?
Oh yeah, I’m actually formulating that plan right now in Miami. I work very closely with Nike (NKE), so there are a few things in the works for the myriad of media that’ll ensue after this win.

Can you give us a hint?
We’re really into colors these days.

As opposed to what?
I’m talking about bold colors, tempered with more muted tones like beige and khaki. That’s where our minds are in terms of expectations.

What’s the most difficult part of picking out clothes for athletes? Is it finding the gigantic shoes? The enormous pants? The ridiculously big underwear?
Putting together a look for athletes, especially those who live within the size range that most of my clients live in—my first challenge is actually working with designers to have them understand the proportions. My clients are extremely tall, but I don’t think of them in those terms. I don’t approach it like, “Oh my God, this gentleman is so tall.” Or “His arms are so long, what am I going to do?” It’s more about embracing those differences. You’re finding ways to applaud the length and the muscles and the build.

If you’ve got it, flaunt it?
Absolutely. I’m all about enhancing the male body and creating looks that frame your body, as opposed to hiding or camouflaging it.

Do you charge by the hour or the yard?
(Laughs.) I definitely charge by the yard. It always works out better.

Who’s the biggest player you’ve worked with, just in terms of body mass?
Shaq was definitely the biggest. I don’t work with him regularly but had the pleasure of working with him on an ad campaign. He’s so self-confident that no matter what you put on him, as long as it’s the right proportions, he looks great.

Proportions make all the difference?
Oh yeah. It’s all about tailoring. You have to make sure the proportions match their bodies. I think that’s one area where gentlemen in general need to develop their acumen.

Give us some measurements for Shaq that would blow our mind.
His foot is a size 22.

Couldn’t he just wear a couple of kayaks and call it a day?
One thing I’ve found with most athletes, it’s all about the footwear. Usually, when they’re being styled, it’s like: “Put me in whatever you think is going to look good, but please make sure that my shoes are comfortable and I can make it through the night.” That’s usually everybody’s main concern.

Unnecessary glasses have become a popular look for NBA athletes. Do you approve?
I completely support it when it’s done in moderation.

When’s the right time for non-prescription glasses?
When you’re in a business meeting or any situation in which a gentleman needs to present himself in a very serious light. It’s a great way to change the way people perceive you.

Athletes have big personalities and big egos. How do you win their respect? Do you have to be the biggest or loudest person in the room to get their attention?
Not really. For me, it’s all about business. I’m very no-nonsense. When a gentleman comes to me and they want to be dressed, they understand that they need the service and they’re ready to turn themselves over to me.

So you don’t get a lot of arguments?
Rarely. I’m not hired so that they can fight against me. I’m coming in to become part of their team and help build their brand and make them more marketable.

Have you ever had a Jerry Maguire moment?
What’s that?

When a client forces you to demonstrate your enthusiasm to keep his business. “Show me the money,” that sort of thing.
(Laughs.) No, thank goodness. My work speaks for itself. When I’m presenting looks and ideas to a client, they walk into a room and instantly they know—just visually—how much I care.

Who’s going to play you in the movie about sports stylists?
I don’t know. I never ever thought about that before. I just hope that she is multi-faceted, whoever she is. And she definitely has to be tall.


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Small U.S. Franchises Head to the Middle East

Jonathan Spiel has tried three times to turn his beloved Tea Lounge in Brooklyn into a thriving chain. Four years ago, he closed his second location after his landlord raised the rent. Another outlet failed because of poor sales, and he abandoned his last attempt when a co-op board imposed tough rules. With the sluggish economy crimping his cash flow, Spiel has found a new way to expand: franchising. In Kuwait.

Spiel hadn’t planned on doing business in the Gulf emirate. But his first—and, so far, only—taker is in Kuwait. How does a Brooklyn lounge that boasts a bar and is popular with nursing mothers become a winning concept in an Arab country where alcohol is banned and women must be modest? “It’s a tea culture, yet there are no tea places,” says Spiel. While that’s not technically true, the desert state does have two things Brooklyn lacks: oil money and a hunger for more U.S. brands. For franchisee Mohammed Al-Arbash, whose family’s holdings range from its original jewelry business to recycling machines, that makes Tea Lounge a terrific bet. “I don’t care if it’s famous,” says Al-Arbash. “I was looking for new ideas in the United States.”

He’s not alone. Hans Hess had barely expanded Elevation Burger beyond Falls Church, Va., when he struck a deal in 2010 to bring the chain to Kuwait. While some might balk at handing their organic burger concept to a twentysomething Kuwaiti owner of hookah bars, Hess never looked back. He has since signed several deals across the Middle East, and sales at Elevation’s restaurants there are more than double the average of their U.S. counterparts. While Hess says he never thought he’d hit Kuwait before hanging a shingle in, say, New York, “it made sense once I understood how in love they are with American brands.”

The Middle East has long been a magnet for U.S. restaurant chains thanks to its wealth and large numbers of foreign workers—not to mention its malls, tax-free zones, and jet-setting elites. Still, the usual franchising formula is to have some heft at home and then go global, often starting with a move into Canada or Mexico. That was before slow growth, tight capital, and stiff competition made expanding next door more difficult than opening in Dubai. The result: Dubai diners get to line up, New York-style, at local incarnations of Manhattan hot spots like Shake Shack and Magnolia Bakery (housed in a Bloomingdale’s (M), the 140-year-old retailer’s first foray abroad when it opened in 2010). Soon they’ll also be able to sample the goodies at Sprinkles Cupcakes, a 10-unit chain from Beverly Hills that just agreed to franchise 34 Middle East shops.

Some question the logic of franchising a budding brand. In return for an upfront fee and a cut of sales, buyers are supposed to get a distinctive and proven business model that can be replicated. “Franchisees are generally entrepreneur wannabes,” says restaurant consultant Michael Seid of MSA Worldwide. When a seller has only a handful of outlets or little experience, Seid asks, what system is being sold?

Smashburger Chief Executive Officer David Prokupek, whose first foreign store opened in Kuwait in April, says he’s glad his five-year-old brand had 120 units at home before venturing overseas. “I don’t think we’d have had the horsepower or supply chain to support a foreign franchisee before now,” he says. “There’s a real risk in these high-visibility cities. If someone has a bad experience, it can really damage your brand.”

The bottom line: The Middle East has become the go-to location for fledgling American franchises. The big reason: oil money in search of U.S. brands.

With Michael Dolgow and Meghan Walsh

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Career Change Beyond 50 - Make Your Age an Asset!

terça-feira, 5 de junho de 2012

The Global Obesity Bomb

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg was in the headlines last week for his proposal to ban soft drink servings over 16 ounces. It’s the latest front of his war against obesity, which kills 5,000 residents in the city each year. (The mayor is the founder of Bloomberg LP, which owns Bloomberg Businessweek.)

The U.S. is a heavyweight champion in fat. It has the most obese population of any industrialized nation. About two-thirds of all adults in the country are overweight and one-third are fully obese, according to the World Health Organization.

This, however, is yet another area where U.S. leadership is being challenged by upstart contenders from the developing world. Already, a larger proportion of people in Panama, Saudi Arabia, and six different Pacific Island nations are obese than in America. Growing obesity in poorer countries is a sign of a historic global tipping point: After millennia when the biggest food-related threat to humanity was the risk of having too little, the 21st century is one where the fear is having too much.

From 1980 to 2008, according to the World Health Organization, worldwide obesity rates almost doubled. A recent study in the Lancet medical journal concluded that in 2008, about 146 million adults globally were overweight and 502 million were obese. Around half of the adult population in Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are overweight and about 8 percent of all African adults are obese. According to the Lancet study, the worldwide health cost attributable to obesity and its consequences added up to 36 million disability-adjusted life-years (a measure of healthy years of life lost to a disease).

It may seem strange to be worried about too much food when the United Nations suggests that, as the planet’s population continues to expand, about 1 billion people may still be undernourished. Although there are good reasons to think the 1 billion estimate might be exaggerated, it is clear that hundreds of millions do still regularly go to sleep hungry. The issue isn’t so much that we can’t grow enough. Rather, existing food supplies are so poorly distributed that those hundreds of millions have too little for their own health, while 2 billion-plus have too much. Even within families, malnutrition is often a distribution issue: How else to explain that about one in 10 households in Russia contain both underweight and overweight members? And ever since Amartya Sen did his Nobel Prize-winning work on the causes of famine, we’ve known the solution to starvation is usually very simple: Ensure poor people have enough money to buy food.

As poverty declines—and the percentage of the population worldwide living on less than $1.25 a day has halved since 1990—fewer people will be too poor to buy enough to eat healthily. The Lancet study reports that the relationship between income and nutritional status breaks down after countries reach an average income of $5,000. Once a country is over that line, the considerable majority of people have the ability to eat enough, and the choice to eat too much. A $5,000 average income is a little more than India’s, at $3,700, about where Indonesia is today ($4,700). China’s average income is $8,400.

When it comes to food, we are living in a world of plenty. For those worried about agricultural sustainability, there is a lot of slack in the system. A third of food production is simply wasted worldwide—spoiled before it reaches consumers or thrown away after that. Continued increases in agricultural productivity, thanks to new seed varieties and more efficient farming practices like fertilizer micro-dosing and drip irrigation, mean that sustainably feeding the world’s population, even if it grows past 9 billion, is eminently achievable. The big public health challenge around food over the next 50 years will not be how the planet grows enough to prevent mass starvation, but how it avoids fat becoming the No. 1 killer.

The bad news is that the global obesity epidemic is a more complex problem than the conditions that felled most poor people in the past. Many common killers like measles can be prevented by a vaccine, malaria can be battled with bed nets and insecticide spraying, and diarrhea is a condition where large quantities of sugar water is actually a plus—add a little salt and you’ve got the perfect treatment for dehydration.

Obesity, on the other hand, has a whole range of different causes and no simple public health solution. The increasing numbers of people worldwide who earn a living sitting down rather than moving around, as services overtake agriculture as the biggest employer, mean the amount of calories the average human needs to consume is actually falling. But agricultural productivity has led to a dramatic long-term decline in the cost of food at a time when growing wealth is providing more resources to buy sugary and fatty products. That wealth also attracts marketers and junk food companies like bears to honey. Pretty much any country with a McDonald’s (MCD) is experiencing a growth in obesity. And just shouting “eat less fat and sugar” at people doesn’t seem to work too well as a response.

As vexing a challenge as obesity might be, it is worth noting two things. First, it is a disease of choice—even if choosing to eat right can be very hard. Nobody chooses to be stunted by a lack of nutrition. Second, there are some signs of approaches that work to improve the choices people make. In 2003, near the start of Mayor Bloomberg’s campaign against fat, New York City banned sweet drinks from schools. Perhaps partially as a result, obesity rates in public school kids have fallen by 5 percent in the last four years.

The problem of global plenty is a real one. But for all of New York’s—and the world’s—challenges with excess, it is still considerably better than the reverse.


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